As an economic "barometer" of the Baltic dry index (BDI), since the Spring Festival eve refresh after a record low of 509 points, then opens the rebound pattern.On March 11, BDI, rising again rose to 568 points, to close to the top of the month.
The personage inside course of study says, a year after the Chinese lunar New Year holiday, BDI will appear a rebound, this is due to the China shipping demand increased after the holidays.Countries, however, as the commodity main demand, China’s economic slowdown, and the European economy can’t support the BDI upward, coupled with the United States to raise interest rates for the global economy, the influence of the shipping industry supply relative surplus situation will highlight, afternoon BDI or difficult to continue to rebound.
BDI "nine rose"
On February 18, BDI hit a record low of 509 points, and then present a sustained rally.On February 11, BDI rise from the previous day 3 points, or 0.53%, to 568 points., according to the China securities journal reporter in recent 14 days, BDI has gained 10.08%.
As founded 30 years of traditional indicators, BDI measure steel, pulp, grain, coal, ore, phosphate rock and bauxite and other consumer goods and industrial raw materials transportation.
"According to the historical situation, a year after the Chinese lunar New Year holiday, will be the must rebound BDI, still have a holiday so the rebound after China shipping demand factor."Galaxy futures researcher at macro Li Yansen said that as China through the main dry bulk commodities, iron ore and concentrate its import from all fell in January and February, and facing an inventory requirements such as post-holiday steel plant, increase the demand for the goods, this is the most important reason to push China shipping demand increase.
In addition, the city treasure futures, said the financial research institute assistant Cheng Xiaoyong for seasonal manufacturing season in the northern hemisphere, especially in China, some traders to cope with the peak season of raw materials consumption, increase the part of the bulk of the dry bulk shipping orders, shipping capacity have warmed.
However, behind the rebound in the BDI, deflation is still shadow over the domestic market.
Li Yansen said that although the BDI behind the rebound showed that Chinese demand for commodities, but still should see it as a deviation of seasonal factors and holidays, only bounced from BDI case is difficult to see signs of domestic deflationary pressures.
"BDI rebound does not mean that domestic deflationary pressures ease."Cheng Xiaoyong said that from the bureau of statistics, PPI struck 36 months lows in February, while the CPI rebound, widening gap between CPI and PPI, which means that the industry demand, excess capacity and price deflation and, therefore, is not alleviated.In addition, the whole, the BDI rebound is still small, and persistent remains to be seen, plus depreciation expectation, dry bulk imports have rallied in March or co., LTD.
Medium-term are rising
Looking afternoon, market participants believe that as a reflection of emerging economies such as China’s economic barometer BDI, medium and long term is unlikely to continue to rebound.
Li Yansen, said after the BDI rally is built on the Spring Festival, Chinese companies release on the basis of an inventory demand.Therefore, in the related industry demand before meet, BDI still has rebound space.But in the long run, China as commodity main demand, due to the economic slowdown is a foregone conclusion, real estate and the decline of the iron and steel industry is directly hit demand for iron ore and coal, which is bad for BDI higher for a long time.In addition, the current European economic situation is unable to support the BDI upward, coupled with the United States to raise interest rates for the global economy, the influence of the shipping industry supply relative surplus situation will highlight.
"Afternoon BDI maintain low most likely become the norm."Cool Cheng Xiaoyong said that because China needs to continue, especially in China’s economic structural adjustment and reform, makes the proportion of China’s manufacturing industry in GDP is declining, which may lead to a drop in consumption per unit of GDP industrial raw materials.In addition, counter-cyclical policy is only the palm on the economy, and with the demographic dividend will disappear, including reform release bonus can only support the economy stabilises, but difficult to return to double-digit growth.Therefore, as a reflection of emerging economies such as China’s economic barometer BDI, afternoon are unlikely to be sustained rally.
